BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+182%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.9–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.9–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.84.8
20273.82.84.9
20283.92.84.9
20293.92.94.9
20303.92.95.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA292023
MidwayNEBRASKA192025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA182025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA172025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA152023
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA142025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA142025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA142014
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA132025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA132021
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA132014
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA131984
SpartaNEBRASKA112025
Winside 2NEBRASKA112022
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA112025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
TildenNEBRASKA102025
MadisonNEBRASKA92025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA92010
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA82025
LockhartMINNESOTA72025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA72025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA72025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA72019
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.