BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+186%Since 1969
108Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Orchard Oriole has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.8–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029
3.9Projected 2029 index
2.8–4.995% range
±24.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.72.74.8
20263.82.74.8
20273.82.84.9
20283.92.84.9
20293.92.84.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Prairie Potholes.
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA322022
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA202024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA152022
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA152023
MidwayNEBRASKA142023
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA142014
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA132024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA132024
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA132021
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA132014
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA131984
SpartaNEBRASKA122021
PoncaNEBRASKA122024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA122024
Winside 2NEBRASKA112022
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA92024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA92010
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
TildenNEBRASKA72024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA72024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA72019
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA62024
GlyndonMINNESOTA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.