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Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.31
20260.030.000.30
20270.030.000.30
20280.030.000.29
20290.020.000.29

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St AugustineFLORIDA31993
MabelFLORIDA22006
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22006
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA21987
Winter GardnFLORIDA21995
OcalaFLORIDA21987
MicanopyFLORIDA11988
RomeoFLORIDA12024
San AntonioFLORIDA11995
BelmoreFLORIDA11996
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12012
DeanvilleFLORIDA12011
FlemingtonFLORIDA11996
AripekaFLORIDA11987
Island GroveFLORIDA12005
Mt. OliveFLORIDA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.