BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
265Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.982.1
20271.50.982.1
20281.50.992.1
20291.51.02.1
20301.61.02.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS272025
TrentonMISSOURI162025
New PointMISSOURI132025
DoverKANSAS122022
FrankfordMISSOURI112025
RichlandNEBRASKA112025
LucerneMISSOURI92025
StillwellILLINOIS82025
HumboldtNEBRASKA82025
Ash RidgeOHIO72021
College SpgsIOWA62004
BrooklynIOWA62022
OlatheKANSAS62021
MoreheadKANSAS62025
McfallMISSOURI62025
NorborneMISSOURI62023
New HamptonMISSOURI62025
Gretna 2NEBRASKA62025
TroyOHIO61995
SherrardILLINOIS52025
AldenILLINOIS52023
Sioux CityIOWA52024
Rock ValleyIOWA52019
Trading PostKANSAS52025
OlsburgKANSAS52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.