BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
262Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.98–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.98–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.952.0
20261.50.962.1
20271.50.972.1
20281.50.982.1
20291.50.982.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrentonMISSOURI232024
WashtaIOWA142014
BelleviewILLINOIS132024
DoverKANSAS122022
GeraldMISSOURI102024
New PointMISSOURI92024
RichlandNEBRASKA92024
WalesIOWA82018
HuntsvilleMISSOURI82024
LacledeMISSOURI72024
McfallMISSOURI72024
FrankfordMISSOURI72024
Ash RidgeOHIO72021
College SpgsIOWA62004
BrooklynIOWA62022
OlatheKANSAS62021
ReeceKANSAS62023
OlsburgKANSAS62024
NorborneMISSOURI62023
MurdockNEBRASKA62023
TroyOHIO61995
KentonOHIO62013
AldenILLINOIS52023
EubanksILLINOIS52024
Sioux CityIOWA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.