BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969
107Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029
0.88Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.695% range
±76.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.005.2
20261.30.005.1
20271.20.004.9
20281.00.004.8
20290.880.004.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA392023
IvanLOUISIANA202013
TroutLOUISIANA192024
EastonLOUISIANA171990
ClayLOUISIANA162024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA152016
GoodwillLOUISIANA152024
LongstreetLOUISIANA142024
ChathamLOUISIANA131975
Mount UnionLOUISIANA132024
ManyLOUISIANA121992
SmyrnaTEXAS112010
MarionLOUISIANA101996
Smyrna 2TEXAS102023
AshdownARKANSAS92023
Fort PolkLOUISIANA91975
CheniereLOUISIANA92024
Fort JessupLOUISIANA92023
EvelynLOUISIANA92024
Union HillTEXAS92024
NanceARKANSAS82023
ZwolleLOUISIANA82023
WomackLOUISIANA82024
LinvilleLOUISIANA82024
LockesburgARKANSAS72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.