BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.005.2
20261.30.005.1
20271.20.004.9
20281.00.004.8
20290.880.004.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA392023
IvanLOUISIANA202013
TroutLOUISIANA192024
EastonLOUISIANA171990
ClayLOUISIANA162024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA152016
GoodwillLOUISIANA152024
LongstreetLOUISIANA142024
ChathamLOUISIANA131975
Mount UnionLOUISIANA132024
ManyLOUISIANA121992
SmyrnaTEXAS112010
MarionLOUISIANA101996
Smyrna 2TEXAS102023
AshdownARKANSAS92023
Fort PolkLOUISIANA91975
CheniereLOUISIANA92024
Fort JessupLOUISIANA92023
EvelynLOUISIANA92024
Union HillTEXAS92024
NanceARKANSAS82023
ZwolleLOUISIANA82023
WomackLOUISIANA82024
LinvilleLOUISIANA82024
LockesburgARKANSAS72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.