BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.560.001.2
20270.550.001.2
20280.550.001.2
20290.550.001.2
20300.550.001.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OzonaTEXAS62022
Ozona 2TEXAS32025
LangtryTEXAS31998
LongfellowTEXAS22025
Delaware CrkTEXAS22014
Casa PiedraTEXAS22025
Devils R CynTEXAS22025
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22021
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22025
MarathonTEXAS22025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11980
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12003
ComstockTEXAS12025
Hot SpringsTEXAS11987
ShafterTEXAS11973
AltudaTEXAS12016
GirvinTEXAS12025
Bear MtnTEXAS12016
CastolonTEXAS12001
ToyahvaleTEXAS12025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12006
Van HornTEXAS12025
PumpvilleTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.