BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.001.2
20260.560.001.2
20270.560.001.2
20280.560.001.2
20290.560.001.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongfellowTEXAS72024
OzonaTEXAS62022
PumpvilleTEXAS62024
GirvinTEXAS32024
LangtryTEXAS31998
Devils R CynTEXAS32024
ComstockTEXAS22023
Delaware CrkTEXAS22014
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22021
ToyahvaleTEXAS22018
MarathonTEXAS22022
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11980
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12003
Hot SpringsTEXAS11987
ShafterTEXAS11973
AltudaTEXAS12016
Casa PiedraTEXAS12022
Bear MtnTEXAS12016
CastolonTEXAS12001
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12013
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.