BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
338Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 3.0–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 3.0–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.26.5
20264.83.26.4
20274.83.16.4
20284.73.16.3
20294.73.06.3

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA602011
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI322016
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA271991
Big SandyTENNESSEE252024
FoleyALABAMA231984
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA232019
EpesALABAMA202024
NorwoodLOUISIANA202024
LakeMISSISSIPPI202024
New HopeFLORIDA192011
SealeALABAMA182017
WhitehallALABAMA172024
CyburMISSISSIPPI172019
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI171982
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA171995
RomeSOUTH-CAROLINA172024
BrundidgeALABAMA162021
ElamvilleALABAMA162024
ForestMISSISSIPPI152024
StarMISSISSIPPI152024
BelgradeNORTH-CAROLINA152019
Warrior StdALABAMA142024
New EllentonSOUTH-CAROLINA142023
BillingsleyALABAMA132022
LathamALABAMA132000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.