BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
338Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.0–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.0–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.83.26.5
20274.83.26.4
20284.73.16.3
20294.73.16.3
20304.63.06.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA602011
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI322016
Big SandyTENNESSEE302025
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA271991
LakeMISSISSIPPI252025
Warrior StdALABAMA232025
FoleyALABAMA231984
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA232019
ElamvilleALABAMA222025
NorwoodLOUISIANA222025
BillingsleyALABAMA202025
EpesALABAMA202024
ForestMISSISSIPPI202025
New HopeFLORIDA192011
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA192025
RomeSOUTH-CAROLINA192025
SealeALABAMA182017
MansfieldTENNESSEE182025
HarrellALABAMA172025
WhitehallALABAMA172025
CyburMISSISSIPPI172019
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI171982
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA171995
BrundidgeALABAMA162021
JenaALABAMA162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.