BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.6–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.6–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.54.6
20273.01.54.6
20283.11.54.6
20293.11.64.6
20303.11.64.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND202025
CokesburyMARYLAND162025
BlackbirdDELAWARE132025
MadisonMARYLAND122025
WalnutMARYLAND112024
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY112012
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA112018
Tall TimbersMARYLAND92014
FruitlandMARYLAND91998
CheltenhamMARYLAND82004
Forest GroveMARYLAND82023
Fair HillMARYLAND81996
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA72024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE62004
Milton 2DELAWARE62017
JonesMARYLAND61994
ViennaMARYLAND62025
HarringtonDELAWARE52025
FrankfordDELAWARE52012
PepperboxDELAWARE52016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE52025
La PlataMARYLAND52009
MatthewsMARYLAND52025
Snow HillMARYLAND51976
NottinghamMARYLAND52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.