BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has increased: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.64.6
20263.11.64.6
20273.11.64.6
20283.21.74.7
20293.21.74.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND182024
HongaMARYLAND152024
MadisonMARYLAND112024
WalnutMARYLAND112024
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY112012
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA112018
Tall TimbersMARYLAND92014
FruitlandMARYLAND91998
CheltenhamMARYLAND82004
Forest GroveMARYLAND82023
Fair HillMARYLAND81996
HarringtonDELAWARE72024
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA72024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE62004
Milton 2DELAWARE62017
JonesMARYLAND61994
ViennaMARYLAND62024
FrankfordDELAWARE52012
BlackbirdDELAWARE52024
PepperboxDELAWARE52016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE52024
La PlataMARYLAND52009
MatthewsMARYLAND52024
Snow HillMARYLAND51976
NottinghamMARYLAND52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.