BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±896.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±896.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±896.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.009.3
20273.70.009.3
20283.70.009.3
20293.70.009.3
20303.70.009.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA782011
JuniorLOUISIANA691991
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA472011
Forked IslandLOUISIANA412025
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA302008
IndianolaTEXAS262023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA212025
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA172017
LafitteLOUISIANA71991
Grand IsleLOUISIANA72019
CreoleLOUISIANA61987
MamouLOUISIANA31982
EstherLOUISIANA22025
VanderbiltTEXAS21972
StowellTEXAS22009
Rock IslandTEXAS22023
San PedroTEXAS22017
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11981
HackberryLOUISIANA12014
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
MauriceLOUISIANA12006
KaplanLOUISIANA12023
RichardLOUISIANA12008
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.