BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±927.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±927.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±927.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.009.4
20263.70.009.4
20273.70.009.4
20283.70.009.4
20293.70.009.4

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA782011
JuniorLOUISIANA691991
Forked IslandLOUISIANA622024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA482024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA472011
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA302008
IndianolaTEXAS262023
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA172017
LafitteLOUISIANA71991
Grand IsleLOUISIANA72019
CreoleLOUISIANA61987
MamouLOUISIANA31982
VanderbiltTEXAS21972
StowellTEXAS22009
Rock IslandTEXAS22023
San PedroTEXAS22017
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11981
HackberryLOUISIANA12014
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
EstherLOUISIANA12022
MauriceLOUISIANA12006
KaplanLOUISIANA12023
RichardLOUISIANA12008
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.