BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.55–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.55–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.500.83
20270.680.510.84
20280.690.530.85
20290.700.540.86
20300.710.550.87

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN92025
BismarkOHIO61995
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN62025
KnoxINDIANA52025
ParisWISCONSIN52025
KewannaINDIANA42021
MiddleburyINDIANA42024
FestinaIOWA42025
EdenWISCONSIN42025
Cherry ValILLINOIS32001
Columbia CtyINDIANA32004
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN32025
CaledoniaMINNESOTA31994
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN32025
GuilfordILLINOIS22023
Lake GalenaILLINOIS22014
PackertownINDIANA22004
LagrangeINDIANA22024
New TroyMICHIGAN21995
NashvilleMICHIGAN22021
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN22025
PrattvilleMICHIGAN22018
S LyonsMICHIGAN21990
Money CreekMINNESOTA22023
GlenwoodMINNESOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.