BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.53–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.53–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.480.80
20260.650.490.81
20270.660.510.82
20280.680.520.83
20290.690.530.84

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO61995
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN62024
KewannaINDIANA42021
MiddleburyINDIANA42024
N FreedomWISCONSIN42024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN42024
AnnatonWISCONSIN42024
Cherry ValILLINOIS32001
Columbia CtyINDIANA32004
CaledoniaMINNESOTA31994
GuilfordILLINOIS22023
Lake GalenaILLINOIS22014
KnoxINDIANA22024
PackertownINDIANA22004
LagrangeINDIANA22024
New TroyMICHIGAN21995
NashvilleMICHIGAN22021
GalesburgMICHIGAN22024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN22018
S LyonsMICHIGAN21990
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN22023
Money CreekMINNESOTA22023
GlenwoodMINNESOTA22019
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22024
CadottWISCONSIN22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.