Nashville Warbler
Nashville Warbler has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
About the Nashville Warbler
The Nashville Warbler (Leiothlypis ruficapilla) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.
- Size
- 4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
- Diet
- Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
- Range
- Recorded on 726 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 21 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
- Family
- Parulidae · Forest birds
Notable Nashville Warbler Trends
Nashville Warbler has surged in surveyed states: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Nashville Warbler Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.79–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1 | 0.76 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 1.1 | 0.77 | 1.4 |
| 2027 | 1.1 | 0.77 | 1.4 |
| 2028 | 1.1 | 0.78 | 1.4 |
| 2029 | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.4 |
Where the Nashville Warbler Is Detected
BBS routes recording Nashville Warbler, sized by most recent count.
Nashville Warbler Population Trend by State
| California | +435% | 1970 | 107 |
| Connecticut | insufficient data | n/a | 7 |
| Idaho | +183% | 1977 | 29 |
| Maine | -66% | 1968 | 76 |
| Maryland | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Massachusetts | -71% | 1968 | 22 |
| Michigan | +670% | 1968 | 67 |
| Minnesota | +105% | 1969 | 45 |
| Montana | +444% | 1981 | 23 |
| New Hampshire | -45% | 1968 | 25 |
| New Jersey | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| New York | +7% | 1968 | 78 |
| North Dakota | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Oregon | +351% | 1970 | 63 |
| Pennsylvania | -68% | 1969 | 40 |
| Rhode Island | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Vermont | -13% | 1968 | 24 |
| Virginia | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Washington | +928% | 1970 | 54 |
| West Virginia | insufficient data | n/a | 3 |
| Wisconsin | +96% | 1968 | 58 |
Nashville Warbler Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Northern Pacific Rainforest | +65% | 1970 | 80 |
| Great Basin | +575% | 1971 | 63 |
| Northern Rockies | +290% | 1970 | 75 |
| Prairie Potholes | -54% | 1990 | 6 |
| Boreal Hardwood Transition | +187% | 1968 | 124 |
| Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain | +47% | 1969 | 36 |
| Atlantic Northern Forest | -37% | 1968 | 152 |
| Sierra Nevada | +62% | 1973 | 35 |
| Prairie Hardwood Transition | -43% | 1968 | 41 |
| Appalachian Mountains | -88% | 1968 | 64 |
| New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast | -75% | 1968 | 26 |
| Coastal California | +67% | 1971 | 22 |
Nashville Warbler Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 142% since 1968.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.