BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nashville Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+187%Since 1968
124Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Nashville Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029
21Projected 2029 index
16–2695% range
±13.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025201525
2026201526
2027211526
2028211626
2029211626

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA1022022
JordanMINNESOTA1002023
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA722024
Crane LakeMINNESOTA722024
ChisholmMINNESOTA722024
GlendaleMINNESOTA712024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN702024
LockportMINNESOTA602024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA572024
BlackduckMINNESOTA452022
Little ForkMINNESOTA432024
BabbittMINNESOTA432023
Betchler LksMICHIGAN412024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA412024
IshpemingMICHIGAN392023
WaskishMINNESOTA352024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA342024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN312024
HovlandMINNESOTA312024
SidnawMICHIGAN302024
OntonagonMICHIGAN292019
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN292024
Red LakeMINNESOTA272024
CreightonMICHIGAN252023
Brush CreekMICHIGAN232016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.