BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nashville Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.29
20260.100.000.29
20270.100.000.29
20280.100.000.28
20290.100.000.28

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BalmatNEW-YORK71997
ParishvilleNEW-YORK52024
EllenburgNEW-YORK32006
MendonNEW-YORK21989
PulaskiNEW-YORK21988
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11979
HighlandNEW-YORK11988
W ShokanNEW-YORK11996
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11984
CatskillsNEW-YORK12000
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK11976
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11973
BranchportNEW-YORK11997
Canadice LNEW-YORK11980
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11996
HamburgNEW-YORK11979
RandolphNEW-YORK11981
SheridanNEW-YORK11983
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12016
WatertownNEW-YORK11987
Alder CreekNEW-YORK11984
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11998
OneidaNEW-YORK11969
ArgyleNEW-YORK11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.