BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Nashville Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+120%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nashville Warbler has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Nashville Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.29
20270.110.000.29
20280.110.000.29
20290.110.000.29
20300.100.000.29

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82025
BalmatNEW-YORK71997
EllenburgNEW-YORK32006
MendonNEW-YORK21989
PulaskiNEW-YORK21988
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11979
HighlandNEW-YORK11988
W ShokanNEW-YORK11996
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11984
CatskillsNEW-YORK12000
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK11976
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11973
BranchportNEW-YORK11997
Canadice LNEW-YORK11980
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11996
HamburgNEW-YORK11979
RandolphNEW-YORK11981
SheridanNEW-YORK11983
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12016
WatertownNEW-YORK11987
Alder CreekNEW-YORK11984
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11998
OneidaNEW-YORK11969
ArgyleNEW-YORK11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.