Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Nashville Warbler Population Trend in California
Nashville Warbler in California has surged: up 435% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+435%Since 1970
107Routes In State
56Years
Notable Nashville Warbler Trends in California
long arc increasecomputed index
Nashville Warbler has surged in California: up 435% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Nashville Warbler Population Forecast in California
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in California is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+123%Change by 2029
3.9Projected 2029 index
2.2–5.595% range
±67.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 5.4 |
| 2026 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 5.4 |
| 2027 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 5.5 |
| 2028 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 5.5 |
| 2029 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 5.5 |
Nashville Warbler Survey Routes in California
| South Fork Mtn | 42 | 2022 | 2000 |
| Johnsville | 38 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Carrville | 36 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Forest Hill 2 | 34 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Placerville | 34 | 2024 | 1998 |
| Bass Lake | 32 | 2011 | 1972 |
| Horse Creek | 31 | 2019 | 1971 |
| Downieville | 25 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Forest Hill | 24 | 2022 | 1997 |
| Riverton | 19 | 2023 | 1973 |
| Tahoe Nf | 17 | 1994 | 1987 |
| Hat Creek | 16 | 2018 | 1973 |
| Pilot Creek | 16 | 1996 | 1994 |
| Hay Fork | 16 | 2017 | 2001 |
| Lonesome Rdg | 14 | 2014 | 1994 |
| Tuolumne Grove | 12 | 2024 | 1972 |
| Butte Meadow | 12 | 2014 | 1972 |
| Wawona | 12 | 2024 | 1998 |
| Orleans | 11 | 2012 | 1972 |
| Tomhead | 10 | 2011 | 1998 |
| Eagle Lake | 9 | 2022 | 1984 |
| Mccloud | 9 | 2021 | 1978 |
| Whiskeytown | 9 | 2012 | 2002 |
| Friday Ridge | 8 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Lake Success | 7 | 1996 | 1980 |
Nashville Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.