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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nashville Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+105%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Nashville Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nashville Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Nashville Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.316
2026127.416
2027127.516
2028127.516
2029127.616

Nashville Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake10220221969
Jordan10020231993
Sawbill Lndg7220241973
Crane Lake7220241969
Chisholm7220242019
Glendale7120241993
Lockport6020241967
Hart Lake5720241967
Blackduck4520222004
Little Fork4320241969
Babbitt4320231994
Sawbill Camp4120241993
Waskish3520241978
Nett Lake3420242013
Hovland3120241973
Red Lake2720241993
Mahtowa1720231993
Bigfork1720241993
Cromwell1620241967
Cohasset1420221973
Lude1420231978
Floodwood1120241967
Island Lake1120171967
Brainerd1120141994
Mcgregor1020241993

Nashville Warbler Population Trend in Other States

californiaconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.