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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Nashville Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Nashville Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nashville Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Nashville Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 7.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 7.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.516
2027127.516
2028127.616
2029127.716
2030127.816

Nashville Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan11620251993
Sherry Lake10220221969
Sawbill Lndg8620251973
Chisholm7220242019
Crane Lake6020251969
Glendale5420251993
Lockport5120251967
Hart Lake5120251967
Blackduck4520222004
Little Fork4320241969
Babbitt3520251994
Nett Lake3420242013
Sawbill Camp3120251993
Bigfork3020251993
Cromwell2820251967
Hovland2420251973
Waskish1920251978
Red Lake1820251993
Mahtowa1720231993
Cohasset1420221973
Debs1220251969
Island Lake1120171967
Brainerd1120141994
Floodwood1020251967
Mcgregor1020251993

Nashville Warbler Population Trend in Other States

californiaconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.