BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Nashville Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Nashville Warbler in New York has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Nashville Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nashville Warbler has surged in New York: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Nashville Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.70 (95% range 0.10–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±270.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±270.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.70 (95% range 0.10–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±270.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.710.101.3
20270.710.101.3
20280.700.101.3
20290.700.101.3
20300.700.101.3

Nashville Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabattis1619831966
Horseshoe L.1320171994
Gabriels920251975
Parishville820251997
Inlet720171984
Degrasse720251980
Balmat719971978
Wanakena620251980
Dannemora620061976
Newcomb420221971
Warrensburg420191975
St Regis Fls420171976
Highmarket320091967
Ellenburg320062004
Sciota320061989
Platte Cove220161979
Coventryvile220161967
Swain220031968
Mendon219891989
Pulaski219881973
Dexter Lake219751968
Tupper Lake219761968
Underwood219961967
Willsboro220241974
Old Forge 2220192007

Nashville Warbler Population Trend in Other States

californiaconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.