BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nashville Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nashville Warbler has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Nashville Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22016
CoventryvileNEW-YORK22016
SwainNEW-YORK22003
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA21996
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA22002
AccidentMARYLAND11995
High PointNEW-JERSEY11998
CooperstownNEW-YORK11974
MeridaleNEW-YORK12023
S BerneNEW-YORK12008
LaurensNEW-YORK12012
McdonoughNEW-YORK12015
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK11987
OneontaNEW-YORK11981
OxfordNEW-YORK11974
E NewarkNEW-YORK12015
DrydenNEW-YORK11999
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK11980
Phillips CrNEW-YORK12017
GainesvilleNEW-YORK11989
CentervilleNEW-YORK11971
S VandaliaNEW-YORK11966
DownsvilleNEW-YORK11990
MilfordNEW-YORK12014
Oxford 2NEW-YORK12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.