BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nashville Warbler In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+67%Since 1971
22Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Nashville Warbler has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Coastal California is projected to rise about 185% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+185%Change by 2029
0.30Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8295% range
±101.2%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.320.000.83
20260.310.000.83
20270.310.000.83
20280.310.000.82
20290.300.000.82

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Coastal California.
TomheadCALIFORNIA102011
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA71996
White RiverCALIFORNIA71992
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA72018
Red BluffCALIFORNIA41983
CohassetCALIFORNIA42024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA31997
ValyermoCALIFORNIA31996
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA32017
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA32007
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21975
TehamaCALIFORNIA22022
StonyfordCALIFORNIA22018
CalpellaCALIFORNIA11984
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA11977
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA11985
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA11975
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA12013
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA12006
SangerCALIFORNIA12024
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA11975
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.