BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Nashville Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Nashville Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Nashville Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 94% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.69–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 94% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.69–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.715.4
20273.00.715.4
20283.00.705.4
20293.00.695.4
20303.00.695.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA422022
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA361970
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA312019
SelmaOREGON252025
Secret ValOREGON222025
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA162017
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA161996
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA142014
ProspectOREGON132025
Days CreekOREGON122025
OrleansCALIFORNIA112012
Whiskey Spg.OREGON102022
MccloudCALIFORNIA92021
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA92012
DerbyOREGON91993
Sams ValleyOREGON92025
MolallaOREGON92021
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA72017
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON72025
HullvilleCALIFORNIA62019
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA62016
CinderellaOREGON62025
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA52012
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA42025
Big FlatCALIFORNIA42012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.