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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nashville Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Nashville Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Nashville Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Nashville Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nashville Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.004.5
20262.20.004.5
20272.10.004.5
20282.10.004.5
20292.10.004.4

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Nashville Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE771981
Pillsbury PdMAINE221968
Big Twenty 2MAINE222009
Heron LakeMAINE192003
Big TwentyMAINE182008
Forest StaMAINE162000
SabattisNEW-YORK161983
TopsfieldMAINE151996
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
TelosMAINE132004
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK132017
WaiteMAINE111977
Seboomook LkMAINE102014
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE102000
NesowadnehunMAINE102021
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE102017
DegrasseNEW-YORK102024
AshlandMAINE92008
YankeetuladiMAINE92009
WarrenMAINE81990
Weeks BrookMAINE82016
Baker LakeMAINE82009
DebloisMAINE72007
InletNEW-YORK72017
BrooksMAINE62019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.