Guild

Arid-land Birds

24 species tracked. As a group, arid-land birds are +41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.24–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.24–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.240.45
20260.340.240.45
20270.340.240.45
20280.350.240.45
20290.350.240.46

Arid-land Birds By State

Arid-land birds group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Texas-78%12
Nevada-51%14
California-45%20
New Mexico-34%16
Arizona-11%21
Colorado-10%7
Utah-3%8
Idaho+0%4
Oregon+10%5
Oklahoma+47%3
Wyoming+63%3
Washington+84%3

Member Species

Species in the Arid-land birds guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
LeConte's ThrasherMimidae-97%1970
Bendire's ThrasherMimidae-72%1970
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-61%1970
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-28%1969
Bell's SparrowPasserellidae-27%1971
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae-23%1969
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae-22%1969
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-17%1969
VerdinRemizidae-8%1969
California ThrasherMimidae-8%1970
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae+0%1970
Canyon TowheePasserellidae+1%1969
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae+7%1969
California TowheePasserellidae+9%1970
Gilded FlickerPicidae+56%1970
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+70%1970
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+101%1969
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+114%1970
Sage ThrasherMimidae+153%1970
Gila WoodpeckerPicidae+272%1970
Abert's TowheePasserellidae+330%1971
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae+504%1969
Crissal ThrasherMimidae+780%1972
Rufous-winged SparrowPasserellidaen/an/a