Guild
Arid-land Birds
24 species tracked. As a group, arid-land birds are +41% since 1969.
Guild Signals
No notable trend signals for arid-land birds. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.24–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+5%Change by 2029
0.35Projected 2029 index
0.24–0.4695% range
±25.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| 2026 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| 2027 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| 2028 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| 2029 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.46 |
Arid-land Birds By State
| Texas | -78% | 12 |
| Nevada | -51% | 14 |
| California | -45% | 20 |
| New Mexico | -34% | 16 |
| Arizona | -11% | 21 |
| Colorado | -10% | 7 |
| Utah | -3% | 8 |
| Idaho | +0% | 4 |
| Oregon | +10% | 5 |
| Oklahoma | +47% | 3 |
| Wyoming | +63% | 3 |
| Washington | +84% | 3 |
Member Species
| LeConte's Thrasher | Mimidae | -97% | 1970 |
| Bendire's Thrasher | Mimidae | -72% | 1970 |
| Black-chinned Sparrow | Passerellidae | -61% | 1970 |
| Black-tailed Gnatcatcher | Polioptilidae | -28% | 1969 |
| Bell's Sparrow | Passerellidae | -27% | 1971 |
| Curve-billed Thrasher | Mimidae | -23% | 1969 |
| Cactus Wren | Troglodytidae | -22% | 1969 |
| Black-throated Sparrow | Passerellidae | -17% | 1969 |
| Verdin | Remizidae | -8% | 1969 |
| California Thrasher | Mimidae | -8% | 1970 |
| Sagebrush Sparrow | Passerellidae | +0% | 1970 |
| Canyon Towhee | Passerellidae | +1% | 1969 |
| Greater Roadrunner | Cuculidae | +7% | 1969 |
| California Towhee | Passerellidae | +9% | 1970 |
| Gilded Flicker | Picidae | +56% | 1970 |
| Lucy's Warbler | Parulidae | +70% | 1970 |
| Rufous-crowned Sparrow | Passerellidae | +101% | 1969 |
| Phainopepla | Ptiliogonatidae | +114% | 1970 |
| Sage Thrasher | Mimidae | +153% | 1970 |
| Gila Woodpecker | Picidae | +272% | 1970 |
| Abert's Towhee | Passerellidae | +330% | 1971 |
| Brewer's Sparrow | Passerellidae | +504% | 1969 |
| Crissal Thrasher | Mimidae | +780% | 1972 |
| Rufous-winged Sparrow | Passerellidae | n/a | n/a |