BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Analysis

PasserellidaeArid-land birdsArtemisiospiza nevadensis

Sagebrush Sparrow has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
358RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Sagebrush Sparrow

The Sagebrush Sparrow (Artemisiospiza nevadensis) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 358 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Passerellidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.31–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.31–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.620.300.95
20270.630.300.95
20280.630.300.95
20290.630.310.95
20300.630.310.96

Where the Sagebrush Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend by State

Sagebrush Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-94%197015
California-43%197414
Colorado+26%197628
Idaho+333%197221
Montanainsufficient datan/a3
Nevada-51%197041
New Mexico-50%197016
Oregon-56%197042
Utah-33%197079
Washington+19%198418
Wyoming+93%197081

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Sagebrush Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-67%1970153
Northern Rockies+111%197083
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-36%197097
Badlands and Prairies+2%198116

Sagebrush Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 3% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.