BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Northern Rockies has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has surged in Northern Rockies: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.007.3
20271.20.007.2
20281.20.007.1
20291.10.007.1
20301.00.007.0

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MckinnonWYOMING921986
Patrick DrawWYOMING851980
Seedskadee 2WYOMING712024
Flamin GorgeWYOMING582025
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING531983
Green RiverWYOMING361984
Patrick Draw 4WYOMING352002
RelianceWYOMING302025
WorlandWYOMING232025
Patrick Draw 5WYOMING222009
Black Rock 2WYOMING212025
Browns ParkCOLORADO192025
Bear CreekWYOMING192025
Elk Horn 2WYOMING182025
DiamondvilleWYOMING171982
WickiupOREGON161986
Elk HornWYOMING132018
Clover CreekOREGON122025
CarterWYOMING112016
HarmonyWYOMING101980
BairoilWYOMING92025
Black RockWYOMING92001
RawlinsWYOMING92014
BaggsWYOMING92025
GeboWYOMING82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.