BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has surged in Wyoming: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.0013
20272.60.0013
20282.50.0013
20292.50.0013
20302.40.0013

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mckinnon9219861969
Patrick Draw8519801974
Seedskadee 27120242024
Flamin Gorge5820251988
Patrick Draw 25319831981
Green River3619841977
Patrick Draw 43520021992
Reliance3020251977
Worland2320251992
Patrick Draw 52220092004
Black Rock 22120252010
Bear Creek1920251968
Elk Horn 21820252022
Diamondville1719821977
Elk Horn1320181991
Carter1120162006
Harmony1019801980
Bairoil920251993
Black Rock920011990
Rawlins920141989
Baggs920251995
Gebo820252010
Riverview719891989
Bill620011999
Shirley620161980

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.