BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+105%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has surged in Wyoming: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.0013
20262.70.0013
20272.60.0013
20282.60.0013
20292.50.0013

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mckinnon9219861969
Patrick Draw8519801974
Seedskadee 27120242024
Flamin Gorge6820241988
Reliance6120181977
Patrick Draw 25319831981
Leo4319821982
Black Rock 24020242010
Green River3619841977
Patrick Draw 43520021992
Baggs2820241995
Patrick Draw 52220092004
Farson2120241995
Bear Creek1920241968
Elk Horn 21920242022
Diamondville1719821977
Worland1620241992
Elk Horn1320181991
Soda Well1120242015
Carter1120162006
Gebo1020242010
Bairoil1020241993
Harmony1019801980
Patrick Draw 6920242010
Black Rock920011990

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.