BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.007.6
20273.20.007.6
20283.20.007.6
20293.20.007.6
20303.20.007.6

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canyon Rims6420251998
Blanding4320251987
Indian Peak3020211992
Gilson Butte2920041993
Hyrum2419751975
Iron Springs 21920252024
Willow Creek1720241986
Wah Wah1720041989
Bonanza1420141992
Peplin Mountain1420251999
Hill Creek1319951994
Grouse Creek1120101986
Iron Springs1020231979
Moon Lake1020031993
Lake Powell1020091993
Gilson Butte 21020182006
Westwater1020251997
Wendover920111969
Fish Lake Nf820131992
Gold Hill720251995
Delta720251993
Glen Canyon720251993
Hanksville620161991
Notom620211991
Beryl620251987

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.