BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.007.7
20263.30.007.7
20273.30.007.7
20283.30.007.7
20293.30.007.7

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Springs 24620242024
Jensen3120241992
Indian Peak3020211992
Gilson Butte2920041993
Delta2820241993
Canyon Rims2820241998
Hyrum2419751975
Blanding2020241987
Willow Creek1720241986
Wah Wah1720041989
Bonanza1420141992
Hill Creek1319951994
Glen Canyon1220241993
Grouse Creek1120101986
Iron Springs1020231979
Moon Lake1020031993
Lake Powell1020091993
Gilson Butte 21020182006
Wendover920111969
Fish Lake Nf820131992
Beryl820241987
Peplin Mountain820241999
Hanksville620161991
Notom620211991
Book Ridge520192016

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.