BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in New Mexico has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.95 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.95 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.840.002.4
20270.830.002.4
20280.810.002.4
20290.800.002.4
20300.780.002.3

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nageesi2520251968
Newcomb1620212021
Torreon1420251975
La Plata1420131990
Aztec919891988
La Plata 2820162014
Mcgaffey720231994
Farmington319871975
Laborcita319951993
Horse Spgs319781978
Counselor320251992
Dulce220112008
Cebolla119981981
Shiprock119971997
Stinking Lk.119921992
Sanostee120222022

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.