BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Washington

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Washington has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+19%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in Washington. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Washington is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±277.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Washington is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.82
20270.300.000.82
20280.300.000.82
20290.300.000.82
20300.300.000.82

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanford Site1019911988
Moses Coulee1020251993
Bickleton919901990
Pomona619991998
Moses Lake519971988
Wilbur219901990
Arid Land Er219961988
Quincy120211998
Brewster120131996
Selah120232004
Ellensburg119901982
Ardenvoir119861986
Harrington120041982
Horn Rapids120222006
Mercer120141996
Scootney Reservoir120152015
Richland120172006
Potholes120091997

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.