BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.003.7
20270.870.003.7
20280.810.003.6
20290.740.003.6
20300.680.003.5

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wagontire5820251968
Willow Spg5519711969
Lookout Lake4719941985
Fandango Can3720251977
Harney Lake2120241993
Crooked Riv.1920251994
Alvord Lake1820251968
Green Mtn.1820251994
Bowden Hills1720252024
Wickiup1619861969
Blizzard Gap1320251984
Trout Creek1320251996
Blitzen 21220251994
Clover Creek1220251972
Blitzen1119931971
Warner Vally1020241993
Flook Lake1020251994
Malheur Nwr519981987
Bly519921988
Joseph419731973
Battle Mtn420251985
Catlow Rim420251997
Malheur Res.420232022
Three Forks320252005
Lapham Res.320011991

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.