BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.003.7
20260.830.003.6
20270.760.003.6
20280.690.003.5
20290.630.003.4

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow Spg5519711969
Wagontire4920241968
Fandango Can4720241977
Lookout Lake4719941985
Harney Lake2120241993
Wickiup1619861969
Crowley1520241983
Green Mtn.1420241994
Trout Creek1220211996
Blitzen1119931971
Blitzen 21020241994
Blizzard Gap1020241984
Warner Vally1020241993
Crooked Riv.1020241994
Alvord Lake720241968
Clover Creek620241972
Malheur Nwr519981987
Bly519921988
Bowden Hills520242024
Joseph419731973
Battle Mtn420241985
Catlow Rim420241997
Malheur Res.420232022
Lapham Res.320011991
Princeton319851972

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.