BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025170.0038
2026170.0038
2027160.0038
2028160.0038
2029160.0037

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe Nf15720241987
Sutcliffe12619721968
Dobbin Creek7020181968
Walker Can6220241968
Sand Pass6020241979
Oreana5620032002
Mizpah5520241988
Cortez4620241968
Darroughs Hot Spgs4420242000
Sheldon Nwr4020191992
Minerva3820241988
Fish Creek3720211997
Willis3620241988
Virgin Creek3220181995
Eureka2920241968
Illipah2920211968
Austin2820182008
Piute Mdws2720242005
Thorne1819791969
Ruby Valley 21720172004
Big Smokey V1519881988
Gardnerville 21320182013
Chimney Res.920242005
Rye Patch719871968
Bald Mtn.720241993

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.