BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has fallen sharply in Nevada: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada is projected to rise about 135% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+135%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada is projected to rise about 135% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026160.0037
2027160.0037
2028150.0037
2029150.0037
2030150.0036

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe Nf15720241987
Sutcliffe12619721968
Dobbin Creek7020181968
Walker Can6220241968
Sand Pass5720251979
Oreana5620032002
Mizpah5520241988
Darroughs Hot Spgs4420242000
Sheldon Nwr4020191992
Minerva3820241988
Fish Creek3720211997
Cortez3720251968
Willis3620241988
Virgin Creek3220181995
Eureka2920241968
Illipah2920211968
Austin2820182008
Piute Mdws2220252005
Thorne1819791969
Ruby Valley 21720172004
Big Smokey V1519881988
Gardnerville 21320182013
Bald Mtn.820251993
Rye Patch719871968
Vya619741968

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.