BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho has surged: up 364% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+364%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has surged in Idaho: up 364% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±219.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.40.0012
20265.50.0012
20275.50.0012
20285.60.0013
20295.60.0013

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kyle Canyon5620241985
Twin Buttes1820241985
Lost River1420241985
Hot Spring1220141988
Dubois1120241970
Tractor Flat820241985
Circular Bu720241985
Picabo719901990
Magic Mtn320001997
Silver City320241993
Daniels Res320042003
Mora220192018
Blacks Creek119981969
Springfield119811976
Ririe120172007
Triangle120241990
Featherville119971996
Carey120061989
Dougal Res120061988
Almo119931993
Pasadena Val120021993

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.