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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Idaho

All statesArid-land birds

Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho has surged: up 333% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+333%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sagebrush Sparrow Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has surged in Idaho: up 333% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±210.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.30.0012
20275.40.0012
20285.40.0012
20295.40.0012
20305.50.0012

Sagebrush Sparrow Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kyle Canyon5520251985
Lost River2820251985
Twin Buttes2220251985
Tractor Flat1620251985
Dubois1520251970
Circular Bu920251985
Picabo719901990
Hot Spring620251988
Magic Mtn320001997
Silver City320251993
Daniels Res320042003
Mora220192018
Blacks Creek119981969
Springfield119811976
Ririe120172007
Triangle120241990
Featherville119971996
Carey120061989
Dougal Res120061988
Almo119931993
Pasadena Val120021993

Sagebrush Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.