BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-68%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sagebrush Sparrow has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sagebrush Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.0011
20264.90.0011
20274.90.0011
20284.80.0011
20294.70.0010

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe NfNEVADA1572024
SutcliffeNEVADA1261972
Dobbin CreekNEVADA702018
Walker CanNEVADA622024
Sand PassNEVADA602024
Kyle CanyonIDAHO562024
OreanaNEVADA562003
MizpahNEVADA552024
Willow SpgOREGON551971
WagontireOREGON492024
Fandango CanOREGON472024
Lookout LakeOREGON471994
CortezNEVADA462024
Iron Springs 2UTAH462024
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA442024
Sheldon NwrNEVADA402019
MinervaNEVADA382024
Fish CreekNEVADA372021
BartleCALIFORNIA361977
WillisNEVADA362024
Virgin CreekNEVADA322018
Indian PeakUTAH302021
EurekaNEVADA292024
IllipahNEVADA292021
AustinNEVADA282018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.