BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.11–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.11–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.103.4
20261.80.103.4
20271.80.103.4
20281.80.113.4
20291.80.113.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NageesiNEW-MEXICO592024
JensenUTAH312024
Gilson ButteUTAH292004
Canyon RimsUTAH282024
BlandingUTAH202024
House RockARIZONA192022
MoscaCOLORADO192024
Willow CreekUTAH172024
NewcombNEW-MEXICO162021
BasinCOLORADO142024
La PlataNEW-MEXICO142013
BonanzaUTAH142014
Hill CreekUTAH131995
TorreonNEW-MEXICO122024
Glen CanyonUTAH122024
Black MesaARIZONA111995
PageARIZONA102019
Moon LakeUTAH102003
Lake PowellUTAH102009
Gilson Butte 2UTAH102018
AztecNEW-MEXICO91989
TsaileARIZONA82023
AntonitoCOLORADO82004
MesitaCOLORADO82024
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO82016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.