BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sagebrush Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Sagebrush Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+10%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sagebrush Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Sagebrush Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sagebrush Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.33
20260.130.000.33
20270.130.000.33
20280.130.000.33
20290.130.000.33

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sagebrush Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Soda WellWYOMING112024
RiverviewWYOMING71989
BillWYOMING62001
PowdervilleMONTANA22001
RedbirdWYOMING21974
Teapot DomeWYOMING21989
SussexWYOMING21998
ShawneeWYOMING22005
AlbionMONTANA12008
RecluseWYOMING12024
MayoworthWYOMING12018
RavenWYOMING12022
MeadowdaleWYOMING11984
LuskWYOMING11989
Thunder BasinWYOMING12012
Caballa CrkWYOMING12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.