BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla Population Analysis

PtiliogonatidaeArid-land birdsPhainopepla nitens

Phainopepla has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
230RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Phainopepla

The Phainopepla (Phainopepla nitens) is a North American member of the Silky-flycatchers (Ptiliogonatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
7–8 in long (18–20 cm) — a slim, crested songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 230 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Ptiliogonatidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Phainopepla TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Phainopepla Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla is projected to rise about 113% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.07–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+113%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla is projected to rise about 113% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.07–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.070.21
20270.140.070.21
20280.140.070.21
20290.140.070.22
20300.140.070.22

Where the Phainopepla Is Detected

BBS routes recording Phainopepla, sized by most recent count.

Phainopepla Population Trend by State

Phainopepla population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+74%197061
California-15%1970114
Nevada+320%197211
New Mexico+168%197919
Texas+94%197123
Utahinsufficient datan/a2

Phainopepla Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Phainopepla population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-50%19726
Sierra Nevada-38%19777
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-66%19958
Coastal California-9%197071
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+174%197073
Sierra Madre Occidental-25%197026
Chihuahuan Desert+39%197137

Phainopepla Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 59% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.