Phainopepla
Phainopepla has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
About the Phainopepla
The Phainopepla (Phainopepla nitens) is a North American member of the Silky-flycatchers (Ptiliogonatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.
- Size
- 7–8 in long (18–20 cm) — a slim, crested songbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
- Diet
- Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
- Range
- Recorded on 228 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
- Family
- Ptiliogonatidae · Arid-land birds
Notable Phainopepla Trends
Phainopepla has surged in surveyed states: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Phainopepla Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.08–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| 2026 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| 2027 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| 2028 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| 2029 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
Where the Phainopepla Is Detected
BBS routes recording Phainopepla, sized by most recent count.
Phainopepla Population Trend by State
| Arizona | +120% | 1970 | 60 |
| California | +17% | 1970 | 114 |
| Nevada | +354% | 1972 | 10 |
| New Mexico | +179% | 1979 | 19 |
| Texas | +94% | 1971 | 23 |
| Utah | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
Phainopepla Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Great Basin | -56% | 1972 | 5 |
| Sierra Nevada | -38% | 1977 | 7 |
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | -66% | 1995 | 8 |
| Coastal California | +35% | 1970 | 71 |
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | +264% | 1970 | 73 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | -13% | 1970 | 25 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | +115% | 1971 | 37 |
Phainopepla Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 114% since 1970.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.