BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla Population Trend in California

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in California has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Phainopepla in California. See the full index history below.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in California is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.15–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in California is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.15–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.141.6
20270.870.141.6
20280.880.141.6
20290.880.141.6
20300.880.151.6

Phainopepla Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Phainopepla in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pearblossom2020191971
Mt Laguna1319871974
Ventucopa1219981994
Oak Grove1120251968
Coachella Cn1119881975
Lake Cachuma1120161972
Anza Borrego920251969
Elsinore Mtn920251970
Cleveland Nf920171994
Sawmill Mtn820141971
Tujunga820211988
White River719921973
Valley Wells620231995
Foster Park519941968
Barstow519951969
Palo Verde519771977
Sisquoc520141970
Lake Hemet 2520171992
Kernville520082008
Iron Mtns420132007
Auburn419801977
Cuyamaca Pk420251970
Anza420041971
Elizabeth Lk420161970
Copperopolis420241972

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.