BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Texas has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+94%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Phainopepla in Texas. See the full index history below.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Texas is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Texas is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.040.000.08
20290.040.000.08

Phainopepla Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Phainopepla in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marfa620242006
Ft. Davis620222008
Comstock320081996
Longfellow320191995
Quitman Canyon 2220182018
Bear Mtn220191989
Devils R Cyn220241996
Salt Flat220122003
Sierra Blanc220162000
Valentine219871969
Chisos Basin120181998
Marathon120222022
Castolon120011994
Presidio120222000
Toyahvale120001998
Quitman Cyn.120091999
Black Gap120151994
Shafter119851970
Canutillo120191997
Altuda120231969
Delaware Crk120132013
Slaughter120092009
Ozona120012001

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.