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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Arizona has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has risen sharply in Arizona: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Arizona is projected to rise about 133% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+133%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Arizona is projected to rise about 133% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.71.38.0
20274.71.38.1
20284.71.38.1
20294.71.38.1
20304.71.48.1

Phainopepla Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Phainopepla in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe4820231990
Bates Well4120231995
Cutter 22520182015
Redington1520251993
Patagonia1320251968
Bartlett Res1320251992
Cutter1120141992
Wikieup920241992
Ajo820081968
Lukeville819801975
Skull Valley 2720252025
Gila Bend720241995
Cabeza Priet720251993
Skull Valley620241996
Palo Verde620131992
Antares520252001
Casa Grande520231989
Ajo 2520222009
Willow Beach 2420252004
Prescott320251975
Quartzsite320251976
Aztec Peak319771977
Dateland320121991
Pomerene320251968
Amado320251993

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.