Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Phainopepla Population Trend in Arizona
Phainopepla in Arizona has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+120%Since 1970
60Routes In State
56Years
Notable Phainopepla Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Phainopepla has surged in Arizona: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Phainopepla Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Arizona is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 1.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+17%Change by 2029
4.9Projected 2029 index
1.6–8.395% range
±19.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 8.2 |
| 2026 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 8.2 |
| 2027 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 8.2 |
| 2028 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 8.2 |
| 2029 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 8.3 |
Phainopepla Survey Routes in Arizona
| Organ Pipe | 48 | 2023 | 1990 |
| Bates Well | 41 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Patagonia | 38 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Cutter 2 | 25 | 2018 | 2015 |
| Bartlett Res | 21 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Pomerene | 18 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Cabeza Priet | 16 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Peña Blanca | 15 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Cutter | 11 | 2014 | 1992 |
| Wikieup | 9 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Ajo | 8 | 2008 | 1968 |
| Lukeville | 8 | 1980 | 1975 |
| Amado | 8 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Gila Bend | 7 | 2024 | 1995 |
| Quartzsite | 6 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Skull Valley | 6 | 2024 | 1996 |
| Palo Verde | 6 | 2013 | 1992 |
| Casa Grande | 5 | 2023 | 1989 |
| Ajo 2 | 5 | 2022 | 2009 |
| Prescott | 4 | 2022 | 1975 |
| Willow Beach 2 | 4 | 2024 | 2004 |
| Aztec Peak | 3 | 1977 | 1977 |
| Dateland | 3 | 2012 | 1991 |
| Alamo Res. | 3 | 2021 | 1993 |
| Forest Lakes | 3 | 2022 | 1996 |
Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.