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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Arizona has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+120%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has surged in Arizona: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Arizona is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 1.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Arizona is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 1.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20264.91.58.2
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Phainopepla Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Phainopepla in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe4820231990
Bates Well4120231995
Patagonia3820241968
Cutter 22520182015
Bartlett Res2120241992
Pomerene1820241968
Cabeza Priet1620241993
Peña Blanca1520241975
Cutter1120141992
Wikieup920241992
Ajo820081968
Lukeville819801975
Amado820231993
Gila Bend720241995
Quartzsite620241976
Skull Valley620241996
Palo Verde620131992
Casa Grande520231989
Ajo 2520222009
Prescott420221975
Willow Beach 2420242004
Aztec Peak319771977
Dateland320121991
Alamo Res.320211993
Forest Lakes320221996

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.