BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in New Mexico has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+179%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has surged in New Mexico: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in New Mexico is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±247.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in New Mexico is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.43
20260.200.000.43
20270.200.000.44
20280.200.000.44
20290.210.000.44

Phainopepla Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Phainopepla in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita1320191992
Mesilla720001992
Laborcita 2320242022
Gage219921989
Vicks Peak219961993
Red Rock220241994
Salt Lake 2120212021
Horse Spgs119991999
Roswell120082008
Jornada120211975
Rodeo120122002
Magdalena120181997
Emory Pass120212021
Pinon120131994
Queen120212000
Hatchet Peak120072007
Columbus120242017
Escondida120241998
Lake Valley120241980

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.