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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Nevada has surged: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+320%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has surged in Nevada: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Nevada is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.06–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Nevada is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.06–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.620.021.2
20270.630.031.2
20280.640.041.2
20290.650.051.2
20300.660.061.3

Phainopepla Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Phainopepla in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willis720252025
Desert Nwr620192011
Nelson520251995
Val Of Fire320251988
Ash Meadows220241996
Caliente220162000
Jean Lake119991973
Meadow Vally120252021
Hiko120181969
Beatty120112010
Alamo119691969

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

arizonacalifornianew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.