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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Nevada has surged: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+354%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Phainopepla Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has surged in Nevada: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Phainopepla Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Nevada is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.03–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Nevada is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.03–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.001.2
20260.610.001.2
20270.620.011.2
20280.630.021.2
20290.630.031.2

Phainopepla Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Phainopepla in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nelson720241995
Desert Nwr620192011
Ash Meadows220241996
Meadow Vally220242021
Caliente220162000
Val Of Fire220241988
Jean Lake119991973
Hiko120181969
Beatty120112010
Alamo119691969

Phainopepla Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.