BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+264%Since 1970
73Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Phainopepla has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029
4.5Projected 2029 index
1.9–7.195% range
±85.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.31.66.9
20264.31.76.9
20274.41.87.0
20284.41.87.1
20294.51.97.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Organ PipeARIZONA482023
Bates WellARIZONA412023
Cutter 2ARIZONA252018
PearblossomCALIFORNIA202019
Cabeza PrietARIZONA162024
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA142016
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA111988
WikieupARIZONA92024
AjoARIZONA82008
LukevilleARIZONA81980
Gila BendARIZONA72024
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA72024
NelsonNEVADA72024
QuartzsiteARIZONA62024
Palo VerdeARIZONA62013
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA62023
Casa GrandeARIZONA52023
Ajo 2ARIZONA52022
BarstowCALIFORNIA51995
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA51977
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA42024
Iron MtnsCALIFORNIA42013
DatelandARIZONA32012
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32021
IvanpahCALIFORNIA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.