BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+264%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Phainopepla has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Phainopepla In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.31.66.9
20264.31.76.9
20274.41.87.0
20284.41.87.1
20294.51.97.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Phainopepla in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA482023
Bates WellARIZONA412023
Cutter 2ARIZONA252018
PearblossomCALIFORNIA202019
Cabeza PrietARIZONA162024
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA142016
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA111988
WikieupARIZONA92024
AjoARIZONA82008
LukevilleARIZONA81980
Gila BendARIZONA72024
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA72024
NelsonNEVADA72024
QuartzsiteARIZONA62024
Palo VerdeARIZONA62013
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA62023
Casa GrandeARIZONA52023
Ajo 2ARIZONA52022
BarstowCALIFORNIA51995
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA51977
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA42024
Iron MtnsCALIFORNIA42013
DatelandARIZONA32012
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32021
IvanpahCALIFORNIA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.