BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Phainopepla In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+115%Since 1971
37Routes In Region
51Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Phainopepla has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.52 (95% range 0.06–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029
0.52Projected 2029 index
0.06–0.9895% range
±187.9%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.500.040.96
20260.500.040.97
20270.510.050.97
20280.520.050.98
20290.520.060.98

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert.
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO132019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
MarfaTEXAS62024
Ft. DavisTEXAS62022
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32024
ComstockTEXAS32008
LongfellowTEXAS32019
GageNEW-MEXICO21992
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22024
ValentineTEXAS21987
Bear MtnTEXAS22019
Devils R CynTEXAS22024
Salt FlatTEXAS22012
Sierra BlancTEXAS22016
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22018
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12008
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12021
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12012
PinonNEW-MEXICO12013
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12007
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12024
Black GapTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.