BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+39%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Phainopepla In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 196% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.03–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+196%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±236%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 196% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.03–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.480.010.94
20270.480.010.95
20280.490.020.95
20290.490.020.96
20300.490.030.96

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Phainopepla in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO132019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
MarfaTEXAS62024
Ft. DavisTEXAS62022
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32025
ComstockTEXAS32008
LongfellowTEXAS32019
GageNEW-MEXICO21992
ValentineTEXAS21987
Bear MtnTEXAS22019
Devils R CynTEXAS22024
Salt FlatTEXAS22012
Sierra BlancTEXAS22016
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22018
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12008
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12021
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12012
PinonNEW-MEXICO12013
QueenNEW-MEXICO12021
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12007
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12024
Black GapTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.