BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Coastal California has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Phainopepla in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Phainopepla In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Coastal California is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.34–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Coastal California is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.34–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.292.9
20271.60.302.9
20281.60.322.9
20291.60.332.9
20301.60.342.9

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Phainopepla in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA131987
VentucopaCALIFORNIA121998
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA112025
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA112016
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA92025
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA92017
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA82014
TujungaCALIFORNIA82021
White RiverCALIFORNIA71992
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA51994
SisquocCALIFORNIA52014
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA52017
AuburnCALIFORNIA41980
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA42025
AnzaCALIFORNIA42004
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA42016
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA42024
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA42025
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA31997
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA31996
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA32024
SangerCALIFORNIA32024
JofeganCALIFORNIA32023
Cleveland Nf 2CALIFORNIA32019
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA21996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.