BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Phainopepla In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Phainopepla in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Phainopepla in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Phainopepla In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Phainopepla in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.40.008.9
20273.30.008.8
20283.30.008.7
20293.20.008.6
20303.10.008.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Phainopepla in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedingtonARIZONA152025
PatagoniaARIZONA132025
Bartlett ResARIZONA132025
CutterARIZONA112014
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA72025
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
PrescottARIZONA32025
Aztec PeakARIZONA31977
PomereneARIZONA32025
AmadoARIZONA32025
Peña BlancaARIZONA22025
WilliamsARIZONA22018
McnealARIZONA22006
Clay SpringARIZONA22022
PortalARIZONA22024
DragoonARIZONA22004
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO21996
San SimonARIZONA12023
SunizonaARIZONA11992
Forest LakesARIZONA12025
SahuaritaARIZONA12024
Carr MtnARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12024
RuckerARIZONA12000
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.