BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bendire's Thrasher

MimidaeArid-land birdsToxostoma bendirei

Bendire's Thrasher has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Bendire's Thrasher

The Bendire's Thrasher (Toxostoma bendirei) is a North American member of the Mockingbirds & Thrashers (Mimidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
8–12 in long (20–30 cm) — a slender, long-tailed songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 96 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Mimidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Bendire's Thrasher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bendire's Thrasher. See the full index history below.

Bendire's Thrasher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bendire's Thrasher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bendire's Thrasher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01

Where the Bendire's Thrasher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Bendire's Thrasher, sized by most recent count.

Bendire's Thrasher Population Trend by State

Bendire's Thrasher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-36%197043
California-88%197111
Nevada-76%19946
New Mexico-95%197028
Utah-98%19848

Bendire's Thrasher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Bendire's Thrasher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-85%19815
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-99%197034
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-23%197037
Sierra Madre Occidental-69%197911
Chihuahuan Desert-72%19717

Bendire's Thrasher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 72% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.