BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bendire's Thrasher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Bendire's Thrasher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bendire's Thrasher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Bendire's Thrasher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bendire's Thrasher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bendire's Thrasher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.000.68
20270.250.000.67
20280.250.000.66
20290.240.000.66
20300.230.000.65

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Bendire's Thrasher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WickenburgARIZONA112023
FlorenceARIZONA51976
Cutter 2ARIZONA52018
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA51988
New RiverARIZONA32016
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32024
Palo VerdeARIZONA32011
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA31998
Squaw PeakARIZONA21970
WikieupARIZONA22024
CoolidgeARIZONA21985
RivieraARIZONA22018
Gila BendARIZONA22019
Cactus ForestARIZONA22025
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22023
QuartzsiteARIZONA12001
VicksburgARIZONA11989
AjoARIZONA12000
AntaresARIZONA12025
Cabeza PrietARIZONA12025
HopeARIZONA11994
Casa GrandeARIZONA12016
Ajo 2ARIZONA12019
Bates WellARIZONA12022
Hope 2ARIZONA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.