BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bendire's Thrasher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Bendire's Thrasher in New Mexico has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-89%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bendire's Thrasher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bendire's Thrasher has collapsed in New Mexico: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bendire's Thrasher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bendire's Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±386.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±386.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bendire's Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±386.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.74
20270.000.000.74
20280.000.000.74
20290.000.000.74
20300.000.000.74

Bendire's Thrasher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bendire's Thrasher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cerro Verde720251984
Datil519951993
Gage320251968
Nageesi220051968
Crownpoint219951991
Fence Lake219811975
Horse Spgs220021975
Horse Mtn219771972
Counselor219991992
Red Rock220232021
Farmington119871987
Torreon120101975
Salt Lake 2120252002
Correo119821975
Valencia119961968
Claunch119941977
Roswell120252023
Deming119711968
Rodeo120251979
Salt Lake120001999
Magdalena120082000
Shiprock119971997
Variadero120172009
Quemado119951995
Clovis120002000

Bendire's Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.