BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin Population Analysis

RemizidaeArid-land birdsAuriparus flaviceps

Verdin has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
223RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Verdin

The Verdin (Auriparus flaviceps) is a North American member of the Penduline Tits (Remizidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
about 4.5 in long (11 cm) — a tiny songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 223 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Remizidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Verdin TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Verdin. See the full index history below.

Verdin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.16–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.16–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.150.45
20270.300.150.45
20280.300.150.46
20290.310.160.46
20300.310.160.46

Where the Verdin Is Detected

BBS routes recording Verdin, sized by most recent count.

Verdin Population Trend by State

Verdin population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+4%197055
California-54%197035
Nevada+235%19945
New Mexico+282%197717
Texas-66%1969110
Utahinsufficient datan/a1

Verdin Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Verdin population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-43%19923
Shortgrass Prairie-73%197710
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-61%197214
Edwards Plateau-37%197112
Oaks and Prairies+87%196912
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-14%197074
Sierra Madre Occidental-5%197020
Chihuahuan Desert-58%196947
Tamaulipan Brushlands-71%196925
Gulf Coastal Prairie+4%19795

Verdin Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 1% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.