BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Verdin Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Verdin in New Mexico has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+203%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Verdin Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has surged in New Mexico: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Verdin Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.10–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.10–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.081.0
20260.570.081.1
20270.570.091.1
20280.580.091.1
20290.580.101.1

Verdin Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Verdin in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jornada1420241974
Laborcita 21220242024
Mesilla920001992
Laborcita420191992
Hatchet Peak420231992
San Antonio319771974
Engle219821979
Vicks Peak220221996
Columbus220241992
Gage220241984
Lake Valley220241982
San Simon120191997
Magdalena120222022
Red Rock120241992
Escondida120151998
Sunshine Wll120231992
Rodeo120161983

Verdin Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.