BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Verdin in Nevada has surged: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+235%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Verdin Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has surged in Nevada: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Verdin Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Nevada is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Nevada is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.001.1
20270.400.001.1
20280.400.001.1
20290.400.001.1
20300.400.001.1

Verdin Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Verdin in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Meadows1020251993
Meadow Vally520251996
Nelson220251996
Val Of Fire220251991
Jean Lake120081993

Verdin Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.