BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Verdin in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Verdin Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Verdin in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Verdin Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Arizona is projected to rise about 105% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Arizona is projected to rise about 105% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610.04.416
2027104.416
2028104.516
2029104.516
2030104.516

Verdin Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Verdin in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe9420231990
Pomerene6420251968
Cutter6020141992
Bates Well5320231995
Florence4719881968
New River4320161974
Cutter 23620182015
Red Rock 23120242015
Cabeza Priet3120251994
Cibola Lake2620241993
Lukeville2419811975
Sahuarita2120251992
Ajo2020081968
Wickenburg1720232017
Araby1620231992
Aztec Peak1519781974
Bartlett Res1420251992
Redington1420251993
Carr Mtn1220251985
Wikieup1120241992
Quartzsite1120251974
Ajo 21020222009
Dateland920241990
Hope 2920192014
Squaw Peak819701968

Verdin Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.