BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Verdin Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Verdin in Texas has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Verdin Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has fallen sharply in Texas: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Verdin Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Texas is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Texas is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.002.7
20261.30.002.7
20271.30.002.7
20281.30.002.7
20291.30.002.7

Verdin Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Verdin in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guerra3120181994
Slaughter2720141968
Millett 22420242013
Presidio2020232000
Quitman Cyn.1820091999
Pecos1720172017
Quitman Canyon 21520242010
Comstock1420191967
Langtry1120001994
El Sauz1020151993
Catarina 21020172011
Agua Nueva920231969
Hondo820241969
San Ygnacio719821967
Campbellton720241970
Sierra Blanc720241999
San Pedro720172001
Pear Valley620191971
Shafter619851969
Encinal 2620242011
Catarina 3620242018
Salt Flat620151995
Pumpville620242006
George West520241967
Hot Springs520241967

Verdin Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.