BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Verdin in Texas has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Verdin Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has fallen sharply in Texas: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Verdin Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Texas is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Texas is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.002.6
20271.30.002.6
20281.30.002.6
20291.30.002.6
20301.30.002.6

Verdin Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Verdin in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Slaughter2720141968
Millett 22420242013
Quitman Cyn.1820091999
Pecos1720172017
Cavasara Cr.1620251996
Quitman Canyon 21620252010
Presidio1520252000
Bear Mtn1220251999
Langtry1120001994
El Sauz1020151993
Catarina 21020172011
Casa Piedra1020251986
Agua Nueva920231969
George West920251967
Ozona 2920252025
Castolon820251994
San Ygnacio719821967
Campbellton720241970
Pear Valley620191971
Shafter619851969
Guerra620251994
Salt Flat620151995
Delaware Crk520151971
Raymondville520251998
Girvin520251986

Verdin Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.